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Excessive monetary stimulus and low interest rates create financial bubbles. Central banks are creating the ultimate bubble in MONEY itself, as they fight the downward leg in this Long Wave cycle.
First it was NASDAQ, then it was real estate and securitised debt, now it’s money. This is the biggest debt bubble in history. Each time DEFLATIONARY forces re-assert themselves, offsetting INFLATIONARY forces (monetary stimulus in some form) have to be correspondingly more aggressive to keep systemic failure at bay. The avoidance of a typical deflationary resolution of this Long Wave is incubating a coming wave of inflation.
This will not be the conventional “demand pull” inflation understood by most economists. The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system, with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar. This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.
Strategically, we are far more bullish on equities versus bonds. Tactically, equities face a volatile period - buffeted by alternating cycles of deflationary and re-flationary forces until they overcome bonds as the inflationary endgame unfolds. In that scenario, equity investments should (over time) be aligned with the growing share of real disposable income directed towards essential expenditures, including energy, food/agriculture, personal & household care, mobile telephony and defence (for governments).
The “Inflationary Deflation” paradox refers to the rise in price of almost everything in conventional money and simultaneous fall in terms of gold.
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