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Make no mistake that WAR is upon us; while it might not involve soldiers, bombs, or bullets, the weapons are economic monetary policy. This war has been a long time coming and an article at CNBC this morning made references to the similarity of the previous big currency war in the 1930s. In the 1930s nations were facing an equally depressing economic environment and governments tried as they might to invigorate their economies. As economic depression reaches a crescendo, nations look inward and begin to adopt isolation and self-interest policies; that can bring forth tensions with other nations. In the 1930s nations came off the gold standard (temporarily) and they started inflating their currencies through printing more and more. The hope was to reduce debt (paying it off with an inflated currency) and also increase exports to increase demand for the nation's products. Those nations that first came off the gold standard had the jump on other nations and for a little while it certainly seemed to help, but in reality it only delayed the inevitable. World War II, which came only a few short years later, was not drummed up because Hitler or Hirohito (Japanese Emperor) were crazy. It was driven by economics and the laws of supply and demand. In Germany, the nation had suffered a depression that made the U.S. Great Depression seem benign. Germans had no food, their currency bought nothing, and on top of that the nation was being drained of any and all resources and capital from the Treaty of Versailles. Hitler's war machine created jobs, patriotism, and economic stability. Eventually they needed more steel, iron, oil, and food as the nation grew and rather than trade he ventured forward to take it by force. Meanwhile in Japan, the isolated island had its oil supply in Indonesia cut off by a U.S. naval blockade and President Roosevelt eventually forced an embargo against Japan and sent troops and planes to China. Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was not to instigate war, but to eliminate the U.S. fleet so that Japan could regain control of their oil supply in Indonesia and also continue their push into South East Asia for more resources.
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